How That Alicent and Rhaenyra Meeting Completely Changes Our Understanding of the Dance of Dragons

Warning: This post contains spoilers for the Season 2 finale of House of the Dragon Season 2 and George R.R. Martin’s book Fire & Blood.

House of the Dragons fans who were expecting an epic battle at the end of Season 2 were treated, instead, to a detente—or at least a theoretical one. In a rare scene together, the two queens agree that Rhaenyra (Emma D’Arcy) will march on King’s Landing. Alicent (Olivia Cooke), whose power-hungry son Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) is flying to the Riverlands, will throw open the doors for Rhaenyra and not put up a fight. In a stunning turn, Alicent also agrees to sacrifice her firstborn son, Aegon (Tom Glynn-Carney), whom Rhaenyra needs to kill in order to solidify her claim. In exchange, Alicent will be allowed to take her daughter Helaena (Phia Saban) and granddaughter Jaehaera away from King’s Landing to live in peace.

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It’s a radical departure from Fire & Blood, George R.R. Martin’s faux Targaryen history upon which House of the Dragon is based. That book is told from the perspective of several different Maesters, all with their own biased version of history. But upon this they can agree: Around this time in the story, the Greens and the Blacks engage in all-out warfare. Several battles take place, beginning with Team Green—aided by the Triarchy pirates—attempting to break House Velaryon’s blockade at the Battle of the Gullet. Dragons fight. Both sides suffer heavy losses. It is only after these battles that Rhaenyra attempts to take King’s Landing.

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The show has departed from the books before. The series often tries to fill in blanks left by the “historians” of Fire & Blood or depict what really happened before propagandists put their spin on various events. The show has also inserted the Song of Ice and Fire prophecy from Game of Thrones, which proves to be a central tension between Rhaenyra and Alicent. Though the books never speak of secret meetings between the two women—indeed Rhaenyra is largely missing from the texts in this period having just had a miscarriage—the show already staged a secret conversation in Episode 3 when Rhaenyra, disguised as a septa, snuck into King’s Landing to meet with Alicent in an attempt to avert war.

It’s clear why the show would add another Rhaenyra-Alicent encounter. Reuniting them is a smart way to recenter the male-dominated narrative on the show’s two female protagonists and get two great scene partners in the same room. The story of the Dance of Dragons becomes one not of overly eager fire-breathers but two women desperately trying to stop the inevitable.

And yet this meeting also upends the timeline of the Dance of Dragons. The show is either skipping several battles (unlikely considering Season 2 ended with a montage of soldiers from all over Westeros marching to war), reshuffling the order of events, or rendering the losses in these fights particularly fruitless if it turns out Rhaenyra and Alicent made a backroom deal for Rhaenyra to take the Iron Throne all along.

What follows is an analysis of the scene, how it diverges from the story as we have heard it in Fire & Blood, and what it could mean for the future of the series.

Alicent admits she treated Rhaenyra unfairly

Much like Rhaenyra was able to sneak into King’s Landing earlier this season without being noticed, Alicent is able to travel to Dragonstone without attracting the attention of her family members—a particularly stunning feat considering that Prince Regent Aemond locked the gates of King’s Landing a few episodes ago. Seems like security has gotten quite lax in Westeros.

Upon meeting Rhaenyra, Alicent admits that her holier than thou attitude the entire season has been misguided. She acknowledges that she shamed Rhaenyra for having a lover and acted hypocritically when she later took one herself. And she was wrong to back her dolt of a son to be king over her capable friend.

In short, Alicent sided with the patriarchy (her father, her husband, her sons, the world’s worst toxic boyfriend, a.k.a. Criston Cole), undermined her friend Rhaenyra. And then she was surprised when those same men shoved her aside. In Season 1, Rhaenys Targaryen (Eve Best) told Alicent, “You desire not to be free but to make a window in the wall of your prison.” Now Alicent officially wants to stage a jailbreak.

She explains to Rhaenyra:

Alicent: I was raised to believe there was an order to things, that there was security in following the path laid out for us. I resented you, I think, for caring so little for any of it, for knowing what you wanted. I did not know what I wanted. I knew only what was expected of me.
Rhaenyra: Why have you come here?
Alicent: Because I lost my way—or rather it was taken from me. All those I put my faith in—my husband, my father, my lover…
Rhaenyra: Oh the incorruptible queen sullies herself with a lover.
Alicent: Do not judge me for what you yourself have done. Your father died, I took comfort with another. I too have desires.
Rhaenyra: Yes, but you alone made virtue your banner.
Alicent: And I clung to it, in defiance of you, I think, who so disdained it. I have been alone of late. I walked outside the walls of the city, and I felt a weight lifted from me.
Rhaenyra: How lovely for you.
Alicent: I thought for the first time what I would choose if not for the duty I put before all else.
Rhaenyra: Shall you cast your son down and rule alone?
Alicent: No, I do not wish to rule. I wish to live, to be free of all this endless plotting and striving…I would take my daughter and her child and leave it all behind.
Rhaenyra: It’s too late, Alicent. You said it yourself: Blood has been shed, cities burned, armies march, and you wish to wash your hands of what you yourself set in motion.

Alicent almost admits she was wrong about the prophecy

Alicent is in a confessional mood and gets rather close to admitting that she did, indeed, misinterpret Viserys’ dying words, setting Rhaenyra and Aegon on the path to war. Alicent pivots the conversation away from her misdeeds and toward her late husband. She tells Rhaenyra that though Viserys and Alicent were fond of each other, Viserys never stopped loving Rhaenyra’s mother, Aemma, even after Aemma died.

Alicent: It was his love for her the kept him resolute in his choice of heir.
Rhaenyra: And yet you believe he wavered at the end. Why have you come here?

Alicent doesn’t respond here. She averts her eyes and seems to indicate that, perhaps, she believes now what Rhaenyra told her earlier this season: When Viserys spoke of an “Aegon” on his deathbed, he was referring to Aegon the Conquerer and the Song of Ice and Fire prophecy, not to Alicent’s son Aegon.

Alicent plots to help Rhaenyra defeat her sons

Alicent comes to Rhaenyra with a plan. When Aemond flies his giant dragon Vhagar to Harrenhal, where Daemon has gathered troops for Rhaenyra, Rhaenyra can fly to King’s Landing and take the city. Alicent’s daughter Queen Helaena will be in charge of the city’s protection and will not put up any fight.

In the books, Rhaenyra and Daemon (spoiler alert) do, indeed, take the Greens by surprise by attacking King’s Landing when Aemond is distracted in the Riverlands. Alicent telling Rhaenyra Aemond’s plans certainly explains how Rhaenyra and Daemon were able to pull off this feat.

However, things get dicey between the two women when they discuss what will happen to the king, Aegon, who is still recovering from the burns he suffered at the Battle of Rook’s Rest.

Alicent: Aemond will soon fly to join Cole in the Riverlands. When he is gone, Helaena as queen will be the crown’s authority. If you come then to King’s landing, I will see to it that her guards throw down their arms, we will open the gates, we will shed no blood. You will enter as a conquerer. You already have the stronger hand. Once you take the throne, this senseless war must end.
Rhaenyra: What of Aegon?
Alicent: He is broken beyond recognition. He lies in the dark in pain and terror. He has many faults but if he still heeds his mother, I believe I can prevail upon him to bend the knee.
Rhaenyra: No, still, you defend him. Still you imagine you can have all you want without pain, a price I have no choice but to pay.
Alicent: This will set things right.
Rhaenyra: If I am to take the throne, I must put an end to the opposition. I must take Aegon’s head and do it for all to see. You know this. However you may try to evade it, you know this. Choose. Will you shrink from what you set out to do or will you see it through and make your sacrifice? A son for a son.

In a recent interview with TIME, Olivia Cooke said that Alicent would have to make a “sacrifice” in the finale. She was, apparently, referring to this scene in which, after hesitation, she agrees to let Rhaenyra kill her son, Aegon, in order to cement her claim to the throne.

Let’s pause on the moment Rhaenyra says, “A son for a son.” It is true that Alicent’s son Aemond killed Lucerys Velaryon, Rhaenyra’s son, in the Season 1 finale. Rhaenyra sought to avenge that death by killing Aemond. Daemon bungled that order and had Aegon’s firstborn son and heir, Jaeherys, murdered instead. Two young innocent lives have been taken. But for Rhaenyra, apparently Jaeherys doesn’t count for much because she still wants one of Alicent’s own sons dead.

It is true that, were Aegon left alive, even if he did not make a challenge to the throne there would always be those who could rebel in his name. But something seems to run deeper here. The endless cycle of vengeance has already begun—and, we assume, cannot be stopped.

Nonetheless, Alicent agrees to the death of her eldest child. Say what you want about Alicent, but when push came to shove she always put herself between her children and danger. It was true when she cut Rhaenyra in the squabble after Aemond lost his eye, and true again late in Season 2 when she threw herself between Helaena and danger during a riot. To willingly dispatch of Aegon is more than a sacrifice, it’s a fundamental shift in her character. Rhaenyra goes on to acknowledge just that.

Rhaenyra: You are much changed.
Alicent: Let us be done with this. Please.
Rhaenyra: And what do I do with you now?
Alicent: You let me go to do what I promised, and you fly to the Red Keep in three day’s time and you take your throne, or you take me for a liar. I have neither weapon nor armor. My life itself is forfeit. I cast myself at the mercy of a friend who once loved me.

Three days is not a lot of time. Will the Battle of the Gullet take place between this conversation and Rhaenyra attempting to take King’s Landing next season? Or will the fighting, already set in motion, derail this handshake deal between the two women?

However Season 3 shakes out, book readers know how future generations will view these two women. In a meta moment, Rhaenyra predicts exactly how Alicent will be painted in the annals of history—just like she is in Fire & Blood. She will be blamed for everything. In the book, Alicent is held responsible for acts like closing the gates of King’s Landing (which Aemond does in the show) and agitates for war in other ways we won’t spoil. She is largely portrayed as a villain.

Rhaenyra: History will paint you the villain—cold queen grasping for power then defeated.
Alicent: Have them think what they must. I am at last myself with no ambition greater than to walk where I please and breathe the open air, to die unremarked, unnoticed, and be free.

The conscious callback to Rhaenys’ warning to Alicent in Season 1 that she was simply creating a window in her prison seems to have sunk in. How this will align with Alicent’s fate in the books we don’t yet know.

This pivotal scene upends the timeline of the Dance of Dragons as we understand it, and diverges from the story told in Fire & Blood.